What the Numbers Are Telling Us
As of mid-June, the housing market continues to navigate the aftermath of higher mortgage rates, shifting homeowner behavior, and mixed economic signals.
Mortgage Rates remain elevated at 6.81%, unchanged from last month. While this is historically moderate, it still feels high compared to the sub-3% rates many homeowners locked in just a few years ago.
Loan Origination Volume has dropped sharply—down nearly 80% from the 2020–2021 peak—as buyers adapt to the new cost of borrowing.
Inventory is Rising: U.S. single-family home supply rose 32.7% year-over-year, now back in the pre-pandemic range. More options could ease pressure on buyers, though inventory is still tight in many markets.
Homeowner Tenure Hits New Highs: The average American stays in their home for 8.12 years, a record high, with California homeowners holding on even longer thanks to property tax protections under Prop 13.
Bay Area Jobs Slip Again: The region lost another 4,900 jobs in May—its fourth monthly loss this year—while the state overall posted slight gains.
Unemployment Holds Steady at 4.2%, but economic uncertainty lingers amid a Q1 GDP contraction and elevated household debt.
Sellers Motivated by Life Changes: A majority of sellers (79%) are moving out of necessity—not financial gain—with life events like family needs or relocation driving decisions.
San Francisco Home Prices rose 3.2% in May to a median of $1.75M, while condo prices jumped 10% to $1.29M. Inventory remains low for single-family homes (2.14 MSI), keeping it a seller’s market, while condos (4.08 MSI) are edging toward balance.
San Francisco’s micro-markets are as diverse as its neighborhoods. While these numbers highlight key trends, they don’t capture the full story behind every property type or location. If you’re considering buying or selling, let’s connect for a tailored analysis of your home or your next move.
