San Francisco Market Update March 2025

March 2025

When is the Best Time to Sell?

Happy Spring!

The arrival of spring typically ushers in the busiest season for the San Francisco real estate market. Buyers reemerge in greater numbers after the winter lull, energized by longer days, better weather, and a renewed sense of possibility. At the same time, sellers look to take advantage of this increased activity and the optimism that comes with a fresh start.

So, is spring the best time to sell?

In many ways, yes. Sellers benefit from the seasonal surge in buyer demand—but with more listings hitting the market, timing and strategy become essential. The good news for San Francisco homeowners is that our market continues to favor sellers, especially when it comes to single-family homes. Inventory remains relatively low, keeping competition high and conditions favorable.

Yet, the landscape is shifting. At our recent broker conference, economist Rick Sharga of CJ Patrick Company shed light on a market defined by contradiction. Consumers are carrying record-high credit card debt even as spending remains strong. At the same time, homeowners are sitting on unprecedented levels of equity—equity that, in some cases, may need to be leveraged just to stay afloat. And when you add in the recent stock market volatility, it’s hard to predict how this housing market will fare.

As with any major decision, consulting a market expert to learn about the nuances that are associated with every property type and neighborhood are critical in determining when truly is an ideal time to sell. We’re here to help.

National Housing Market Predictions

Over 60 percent of real estate agents believe that mortgage rates are stable enough to introduce more certainty in the market, leading to more sales. Other factors that contribute to agent confidence about a busier spring season include more homeowners moving forward with listings, and more motivated and active buyers entering the market (Keeping Current Matters).

Better Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have been trending down lately, giving buyers a chance to jump back into the market. They’ve been declining for seven straight weeks, per Freddie Mac. Lower rates combined with an increase in inventory this Spring should bring more activity than we’ve seen in the last few years (Keeping Current Matters). What’s important to keep in mind, per Rick Sharga, are other factors that enter into the affordability equation, such as rising insurance costs.

National Listing Trend

The number of homes in the country for sale this February was higher than it’s been in any of the past five Februaries - great news for buyers. The latest data from Realtor.com shows the supply of homes on the market has grown by 27.5% in just the last year. Why is this happening? Some sellers are realizing that rates are not expected to lower anytime soon, so are opting to sell now.

San Francisco Price Trend

Over the past year or so, we’ve seen a trend emerge in San Francisco that many of the other submarkets in the Bay Area haven’t exhibited. That is, inventory is dwindling away in San Francisco, especially within the single-family home market. While many submarkets throughout the Bay Area are seeing a resurgence in inventories, as sellers begin to list their homes again, sellers in San Francisco remain resilient in holding onto their properties. This has led to a 15.87% year-over-year decrease in active single-family home listings and a 7.70% decrease in the number of condo listings.

Due to the lack of supply on the market, single family homes are fetching well above asking price when they sell, making it a profoundly difficult market for first-time home buyers. The average single-family home listing sold for 113.3% of the original asking price in February, marking the highest level we’ve seen since May of 2022. It is important to note, though, that we’re not seeing the same phenomenon in the condo market, as most condos sell either at the listing price or slightly below the listing price.

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

San Francisco remains a divided market, as sellers have the negotiating power in the single-family home market. Whereas buyers have a bit more leverage in the condo market. Right now, San Francisco’s single-family home market has roughly 1.2 months’ worth of supply, and its condo market has around 3.4 months’ worth of supply.

Fannie Mae’s February Home Sentiment Report

In February, the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) fell by 1.8 points to 71.6. The drop was mainly due to growing consumer doubt that mortgage rates will decline over the next year. Despite that, 24% of people still said it's a good time to buy a home—up slightly from the previous month—while those who believe it’s a good time to sell slipped to 62%. There was also a noticeable dip in confidence around personal finances. Fewer consumers felt positive about their household income, and more expressed concern about potential job loss. Compared to this time last year, the overall sentiment index is down 1.2 points.

Vantage Coming Soon Listings

Russian Hill | Top Floor Flat | Leavenworth St

Nob Hill | Condo | Clay St

Lower Nob Hill | Garden Unit | Leavenworth St

Pacific Heights | Penthouse Condo | Pacific Ave

Laurel Heights | Condo | Collins St

Haight-Ashbury | 3-Unit Building | Page St

Hayes Valley | Single Family Home | Hickory St

Noe Valley | Single Family Home | 22nd St

Noe Valley | Single Family Home | Cesar Chavez St

Mission | 3-Unit Building | Guerrero St

Mission Terrace | Single Family Home | Alemany Blvd

Sunnyside | Single Family Home | Hazelwood Ave

Bernal Heights | Single Family Home | Cortland Ave

Silver Terrace | Single Family Home | Apollo St

Central Sunset | Single Family Home | Moraga St

Pacifica | Single Family Home | Redwood Way

Castro Valley | Single Family Home | Almond Road

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All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, this is not a solicitation of brokerage services. Laura Pallin, License 01947999, Vantage Realty.

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San Francisco Market Update March 2025

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